The claim
Maria Miller, a Conservative minister in the Department for Work and Pensions has said that the UK does not have "a shortage of jobs", but said the issue is rather that unemployed people lack the skills that they need.
Speaking to BBC Radio Five Live [audio], Miller said:
If you actually look at the facts and the figures, there's 400,000 jobs at any one point in job centres. I was up in the Wirral on Friday talking to one of our local job centres there and there isn't a shortage of jobs, what there can be is a lack of an appetite for some of jobs that are available so we've got to make sure people have got the right skills, that they don't see a risk in moving into employment and that this is actually not just a choice but it's actually the route they are going to take. So I don't think it's a lack of jobs at the moment I think it really is making sure that we've got people knowing where those jobs are.Every family should be a working family. I think it's not so much work-shy as have people got the right skills? Can we overcome their fear of the risk of going into work, or indeed, some of the fear of the problems that it will create for the rest of their family...
It's not just about that individual it's about their family as well, and it's not just about skills, it's getting them to be not afraid of taking on that job.
The claim provoked an immediate reaction on social networks, with some questioning the claim given the UK's current economic outlook.
The evidence
According to the latest official figures released by the Office of National Statistics in January, Miller is correct to say the UK has around 400,000 jobs on offer. Between October and December, employers were looking for 463,000 new workers – though this is some 18,000 fewer than a year before.
The issue for Miller's argument is that those same figures reveal that there are also a substantial number of people chasing those jobs. The official count of unemployed people – anyone who is actively looking for work and is available to start immediately if hired – is 2.68 million.
That is around six people for every vacancy in the country. Even using the smaller group of just those currently claiming jobseeker's allowance, there are four jobseekers for each place. One million people aged 16-24 are currently looking for work.
Whichever measure is used, there are nowhere near enough vacancies to enable everyone currently looking for a job to find one – but even these figures may understate the potential future job shortage.
Official unemployment figures also track another group: those classed as "economically inactive", people not in work who are not looking for jobs. This includes people who choose not to work (perhaps those raising young children, or who rely on their partners), those claiming out-of-work disability benefits, and others. It does not, however, include retirees aged 65 or over.
This group is large: 9.29 million at the most recent count.
Much of Miller's discussion on Five Live related to encouraging those people on disability benefits who were able to work into jobs. As these individuals are currently classed as economically inactive, such people would add to the pool of people chasing jobs – or in other words, make the current shortfall more acute.
A regional problem
Furthermore, the jobs shortage is not evenly spread across the UK. Think tank IPPR North analysed the ONS figures and came to some stark conclusions about vacancies across the country:
In some areas of the UK there are a staggering 20 jobseekers chasing every job vacancy. West Dunbartonshire in Scotland is the worst-affected area, closely followed by Clackmannanshire and Hartlepool...The most badly affected urban areas in the north include Hartlepool, where there are 16 jobseekers to every vacancy, Middlesbrough where there are 12, South Tyneside (11), North Tyneside and Redcar and Cleveland (both nine).
The IPPR analysis did, however, concur with some elements on Miller's analysis, particularly on skills.
Levels of unemployment remain high, even outside hotspots, and many towns have yet to overcome the legacy of previous transitions. For those fortunate enough to find work, too many jobs are low-quality and poorly paid, reinforcing low productivity and in-work poverty. And the numbers of long-term unemployed are rising at a dramatic rate ...At the other end of the skills spectrum, while the north is at any one time educating some 580,000 students through its network of universities and higher education institutions, there are still skills mismatches in key sectors.
Just a shortage?
We've asked the Department for Work and Pensions for any extra evidence relating to Miller's appearance, and we're also looking around for any recent studies into skill shortages among the unemployed – or evidence that people have "a lack of appetite" for the kinds of jobs on offer.
If you know of anything we should be taking a look at, please let us know in the comments below, contact me on Twitter at @jamesrbuk or by email james.ball@guardian.co.uk, and we'll try to update this post later.
Peter Kenway of the New Policy Institute has been in touch by email with some analysis carried out for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, which suggests even the official figure of 2.68 million unemployed might understate the number of people chasing advertised vacancies. Using a wider measure of unemployment, akin to the "broad unemployment" measure used in the US, he suggests there are up to six million people chasing work:
There are basically three key groups: the ILO [standard measure] unemployed, the 'economically inactive' wanting work (split here between students and others) and - crucially - the part-time workers who want a full-time job who must be included.
Given that these people are in jobs (but want bigger/longer ones) one can't say that the UK is the full six million short of jobs - but you could certainly reasonably say that it is four+ million short.
On that basis, Miller's 400,000 vacancies represents one tenth of the number of jobs that are actually needed.
Another email correspondent, former JobCentre employee, David Kerrell also noted that many people currently in work may chase new jobs, commenting that "many employers prefer to hire people looking to change jobs as a career move rather than hire someone unemployed. So the unemployed are competing against all the career movers as well".
We've also received several telling first-person accounts of the realities of life for current jobseekers, a few of which are below. KenBarlow told us about his mum, who is one of the "hidden unemployed":
My mum is one of those unemployed but not on any official records as she doesn't get any benefits as dad earns a bit too much.
(Dad doesn't earn enough for us to be able to have heating on until it gets really cold next December).
Must be millions out like my mum - too young to retire, too old/unskilled for many of the proper jobs, not really keen on working as a betterware catalogue distributor, mini cab driver or franchised parcel delivery driver.
And if she did get a proper job she'd just be keeping someone younger and more hungry for it, out of it.
Seeingclearly was one of several people telling us about the number of vacancies that are low-paid placements, recounting her son's experience.
Many of the jobs my son was advised to apply for were out of travelling range, part-time, already filled, some were very out of date. Other options were recruitment to the armed forces. He was occasionally forwarded a job vacancy by his adviser, he either never heard back or the job was already filled.
Local papers had nothing, He called and/or applied for anything he was capable of doing, and only rarely heard from anyone. Training 'opportunities' and placements - charity shops, community centres, Poundland and supermarkets, for £65 for 30 hours plus travel.
Please keep sending your information and stories, and I'll try to post a final update and summary later this afternoon.
The Trades Union Conference - the umbrella body of the UK's unions - has sent its data on the number of vacancies and jobseekers in each UK local authority. Their figures suggest that 35 applicants chase each vacancy in Lewisham, while in South Gloucestershire, Oxfordshire and the City of London fewer than two chased each place. We've posted the full document, and a video, over on the Datablog.
We have a response from the Department for Work and Pensions. This is from a department spokesperson:
400,000 is a snapshot and there are jobs out there with Jobcentre Plus taking on average 10,000 vacancies every working day. Our Work Programme is now up and running and will make a big difference in ensuring that people on out of work benefits get the right support to get into employment.
Verdict
The Department for Work and Pensions has now been in touch regarding today's Reality Check. They've sent a statement which confirms that the 400,000 vacancies Miller cites is a snapshot of jobs available on a given day, rather than a total over three months.
Unfortunately, it doesn't offer any other evidence to offset the data from the DWP, IPPR or TUC suggesting there are far more jobseekers than jobs. The response in full is below:
400,000 is a snapshot and there are jobs out there with Jobcentre Plus taking on average 10,000 vacancies every working day. Our Work Programme is now up and running and will make a big difference in ensuring that people on out of work benefits get the right support to get into employment.
We've also heard anecdotal reports from lots of people in the excellent comment thread on many vacancies listed being duplicates, temporary, apprenticeships or others, plus concerns that the Work Programme may crowd out some paid jobs.
We also heard from several people currently classed as "economically inactive", and therefore not listed in the jobless numbers, who are nonetheless looking for work and often struggling to find it.
These are all topics we plan dig into in the future, whether on Reality Check or elsewhere across the Guardian.
As to the specific topic of this Reality Check, there's no doubt Maria Miller was correct to in saying the UK has 400,000 vacancies. Her assertion that there isn't a shortfall of jobs, however, seems to be roundly contradicted by the data.