Baxter and Northfields products Case Study
In order to project the numbers forward to 2000 the date of product release), we must estimate population growth. The elderly population (65 and older), which currently receives 40% of all acute blood loss transfusions, is expected to double by 2030. Assuming linear growth, we can expect this age group to grow 14% by 2000.
Similarly, the remaining adult population (under 65), which currently receives 60% of all acute blood loss transfusions, is expected to grow 5. 9% by 2030 ((6 – 5. 67) / 5. 67 = 5. 9%). # over 65 1995 2030 XX # under 65 5.
XX (75% / = 3) Assuming linear growth, we expect this age group to grow . % by 2000. The revised estimates of usage for the year 2000 are as follows: Potential usage (1995) Change Potential Usage (2000) Under 65 . 084 over 65 800,000 *1. 14 912000 Current Usage Change Potential Usage Emergency Surgery 1,000,000 500,000 Due to the fact that many more units will be used in the field, the usage in this category will decline.
On the other hand, many more of the trauma victims will survive increasing probability of having emergency surgery. We estimate that the net Pourer Case Study By Winning-Change AT tense two changes wall mean a clean In potential.
Revised estimates of usage for the year 2000 are as follows: 300,000 *1. 084 325,200 over 65 200,000 *1. 14 228,000 Elective surgery * . 05 345,000 Evaluating the attractiveness of the Pourer offer compared to that of the generic human RIB competitor is essential to appropriately forecasting demand in the elective surgery segment.
A simple analysis of the benefits demanded by elective surgery, the benefits provided by human Orb’s, and the benefits provided by Humored would lead one to conclude that Humored is poorly suited to elective surgery.
In particular, donated human blood is: Well entrenched and widely-accepted in modern medicine, Readily available through a well-established network of blood collection groups Relatively inexpensive, at $125-$225 per unit (vs.. The proposed $600-$800 for Humored) Relatively safe, with little chance of infection (e. G.
, 1 in 5,000,000 chance of AIDS). Consequently, Humored is probably only appropriate for applications where donated blood is not readily available and where the loss of blood is life threatening.
Elective surgery certainly does not fall into this category. 207,000 *1. 084 224,388 138,000 *1. 14 157,320 over 65 Chronic Inerrant Humored is ill-suited for chronic anemia applications because of the short half-life, potential for toxicity, and very high price (would you/your HOMO want to spend $600- $800 per unit for the rest of you life if you were afflicted with this condition? ).
Finally, there are 1 million “borderline” transfusion surgeries each year, where doctors avoid transfusions for fear of disease transmission or negative reaction.
Humored could eliminate these fears, resulting in an additional potential of 1. 5 Grand total: 4. 65 million units Question 2) Given Baxter and Northfields relative strength in the market, to what old you revise the forecast? Bester’s Hemostats and Northfields Polymer would both take market-share when they are introduced. Both of these products are made with human blood, which may prove an advantage. In addition, Bester’s history of product success may make it a formidable competitor.
The best responses to this question account for the relative strength of the competing organizations and offers. Here is a suggested solution: Pourer’s real competitive advantages are its shelf life and storage requirements. Baxter and Northfields products, since they are made with human blood, do not have hose advantages. Therefore, while Baxter and Northfield will probably take the emergency and elective surgery segments, Pourer can be expected to win the trauma segment. Our market potential is therefore 2,212,800 units. At $600.
00 per unit our market potential is $1. 33 billion.
A table such as follows could help with this: Potential pre-competition Market Revised Potential Market units on ass’s) Pourer Baxter Northfield Anemia transfusions $0 Elective surgery patients Anonymous donated $382 NO YES Tautology’s donated Emergency surgery patients $553 Borderline transfusion cases $1,500 Trauma Field administration 2,213 Note that answers that rely strictly on production capacity ignore the likelihood that forward-looking organizations will choose to invest in additional production facilities if demand, which can be profitably served, is believed to exist.